Abstract
Assessing the uncertainty due to possible systematic errors in a physical measurement unavoidably involves an element of subjective judgment. Examination of historical measurements and recommended values for the fundamental physical constants shows that the reported uncertainties have a consistent bias towards underestimating the actual errors. These findings are comparable to findings of persistent overconfidence in psychological research on the assessment of subjective probability distributions. Awareness of these biases could help in interpreting the precision of measurements, as well as provide a basis for improving the assessment of uncertainty in measurements.
Keywords
Overconfidence effectMeasurement uncertaintySystematic errorBasis (linear algebra)PhysicsPsychologyEconometricsCognitive psychologyStatisticsSocial psychologyMathematicsQuantum mechanics
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Publication Info
- Year
- 1986
- Type
- article
- Volume
- 54
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 791-798
- Citations
- 318
- Access
- Closed
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Cite This
Max Henrion,
Baruch Fischhoff
(1986).
Assessing uncertainty in physical constants.
American Journal of Physics
, 54
(9)
, 791-798.
https://doi.org/10.1119/1.14447
Identifiers
- DOI
- 10.1119/1.14447