Collaboration is essential for reliable conservation modelling: Lessons from the Mexican wolf recovery program and a response to Louchouarn et al. (2025)

Abstract

Abstract The Mexican wolf ( Canis lupus baileyi ) is an endangered wolf subspecies being recovered in the Southwest United States and Mexico. Breck et al. (2023a) used data from this programme to model key demographic drivers of the population, which was critiqued by Louchouarn et al. (2025). We respond to this critique and demonstrate that our modelling was robust and explain why some of the critique by Louchouarn et al. (2025) is irrelevant and sometimes misleading. We also demonstrate that a competing model of Mexican wolf population dynamics (Louchouarn et al. 2021), that is frequently cited in Louchouarn et al. (2025), is flawed because they ignored warnings about the data from personnel in the Mexican wolf recovery program. Since publication of Breck et al. (2023a) the Mexican wolf population has grown similar to the predictions of our model, indicating it is useful for projecting population growth and understanding dynamics influencing the Mexican wolf population. Synthesis and applications . Conservation programmes like the Mexican wolf recovery program can have substantial ecological noise. Scientists with no on‐the‐ground field knowledge should work collaboratively with personnel from restoration programmes so that important programmatic knowledge is incorporated into analyses appropriately.

Affiliated Institutions

• United States Fish and Wildlife Service US
• Arizona Game and Fish Department US
• National Wildlife Research Center
• Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service US

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