Abstract
W. Brian Arthur's model for competing technologies is discussed from the perspective of evolution theory. Using Arthur's own model for the simulation, we show that 'lock-ins' can be suppressed by adding reflexivity or uncertainty on the side of consumers. Competing technologies then tend to remain in competition. From an evolutionary perspective, lock-ins and prevailing equilibrium can be considered as different trajectories of the techno-economic systems under study. Our simulation results suggest that technological developments which affect the natural preferences of consumers do not induce changes in trajectory, while changes in network parameters of a technology sometimes induce ordered substitution processes. These substitution processes have been shown empirically (e.g., Fisher & Prey, 1971), but hitherto they have been insufficiently understood from the perspective of evolutionary modelling. The dynamics of the selective network determine the possible dissolution of a lock-in given the presence of competing technologies.
Keywords
Lock (firearm)Perspective (graphical)Competition (biology)Computer scienceSubstitution (logic)Evolutionary dynamicsIndustrial organizationEconomicsSociologyEngineeringEcologyArtificial intelligenceBiology
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Publication Info
- Year
- 1998
- Type
- article
- Pages
- 309-323
- Citations
- 24
- Access
- Closed
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Cite This
Loet Leydesdorff,
Peter van den Besselaar
(1998).
Competing technologies: Lock-ins and lock-outs.
AIP conference proceedings
, 309-323.
https://doi.org/10.1063/1.56335
Identifiers
- DOI
- 10.1063/1.56335