Abstract
We exploit the major international health improvements from the 1940s to estimate the effect of life expectancy on economic performance. We construct predicted mortality using preintervention mortality rates from various diseases and dates of global interventions. Predicted mortality has a large impact on changes in life expectancy starting in 1940 but no effect before 1940. Using predicted mortality as an instrument, we find that a 1 percent increase in life expectancy leads to a 1.7-2 percent increase in population. Life expectancy has a much smaller effect on total GDP, however. Consequently, there is no evidence that the large increase in life expectancy raised income per capita. (c) 2007 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Life expectancyPer capitaPer capita incomeDemographyMortality ratePopulationEconomicsDemographic economicsSociology
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Publication Info
- Year
- 2007
- Type
- article
- Volume
- 115
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 925-985
- Citations
- 1251
- Access
- Closed
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Cite This
Daron Acemoğlu,
Simon Johnson
(2007).
Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth.
Journal of Political Economy
, 115
(6)
, 925-985.
https://doi.org/10.1086/529000
Identifiers
- DOI
- 10.1086/529000