Drivers of improved PM _2.5 air quality in China from 2013 to 2017

Abstract

From 2013 to 2017, with the implementation of the toughest-ever clean air policy in China, significant declines in fine particle (PM 2.5 ) concentrations occurred nationwide. Here we estimate the drivers of the improved PM 2.5 air quality and the associated health benefits in China from 2013 to 2017 based on a measure-specific integrated evaluation approach, which combines a bottom-up emission inventory, a chemical transport model, and epidemiological exposure-response functions. The estimated national population–weighted annual mean PM 2.5 concentrations decreased from 61.8 (95%CI: 53.3–70.0) to 42.0 µg/m 3 (95% CI: 35.7–48.6) in 5 y, with dominant contributions from anthropogenic emission abatements. Although interannual meteorological variations could significantly alter PM 2.5 concentrations, the corresponding effects on the 5-y trends were relatively small. The measure-by-measure evaluation indicated that strengthening industrial emission standards (power plants and emission-intensive industrial sectors), upgrades on industrial boilers, phasing out outdated industrial capacities, and promoting clean fuels in the residential sector were major effective measures in reducing PM 2.5 pollution and health burdens. These measures were estimated to contribute to 6.6- (95% CI: 5.9–7.1), 4.4- (95% CI: 3.8–4.9), 2.8- (95% CI: 2.5–3.0), and 2.2- (95% CI: 2.0–2.5) µg/m 3 declines in the national PM 2.5 concentration in 2017, respectively, and further reduced PM 2.5 -attributable excess deaths by 0.37 million (95% CI: 0.35–0.39), or 92% of the total avoided deaths. Our study confirms the effectiveness of China’s recent clean air actions, and the measure-by-measure evaluation provides insights into future clean air policy making in China and in other developing and polluting countries.

Keywords

Affiliated Institutions

• Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences CN
• Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning CN
• Institute of Earth Environment CN
• Chinese Academy of Sciences CN
• Nanjing University CN
• State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control CN
• Tsinghua University CN
• Zhejiang Environmental Monitoring Center CN
• Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics CN
• Institute of Atmospheric Physics CN
• Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences CN
• Beijing Municipal Ecological and Environmental Monitoring Center CN
• China Meteorological Administration CN
• Peking University CN
• Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences CN
• Sichuan University CN

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