Abstract

Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) will offset these losses. The CO 2 fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO 2 ] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated [CO 2 ] enhanced yield by ∼50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO 2 ] will fully offset losses due to climate change.

Keywords

Environmental scienceClimate changeHuman fertilizationAgronomyCropYield (engineering)Carbon dioxideCrop yieldEcologyBiologyMaterials science

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Publication Info

Year
2006
Type
article
Volume
312
Issue
5782
Pages
1918-1921
Citations
1484
Access
Closed

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Stephen P. Long, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Andrew D. B. Leakey et al. (2006). Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO <sub>2</sub> Concentrations. Science , 312 (5782) , 1918-1921. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1114722

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DOI
10.1126/science.1114722