Abstract

<ns4:p>We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.</ns4:p>

Keywords

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Population2019-20 coronavirus outbreakSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Contact tracingDemographyGeographyComputer scienceMedicineVirologyEnvironmental healthOutbreakPathologyDiseaseInfectious disease (medical specialty)

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Publication Info

Year
2020
Type
preprint
Volume
5
Pages
78-78
Citations
43
Access
Closed

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Thibaut Jombart, Kevin van Zandvoort, Timothy Russell et al. (2020). Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths. Wellcome Open Research , 5 , 78-78. https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1

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DOI
10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1