Abstract

Abstract The considerable deficit in cancer diagnoses in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic disruptions in health care can pose challenges in the estimation and interpretation of long-term cancer trends. Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) (2000-2020) data, we demonstrate that inclusion of the 2020 incidence rates in joinpoint models to estimate trends can result in a poorer fit to the data and less accurate or less precise trend estimates, providing challenges in the interpretation of the estimates as a cancer control measure. To measure the decline in 2020 relative to 2019 cancer incidence rates, we used the percent change of rates in 2020 compared with 2019. Overall, SEER cancer incidence rates dropped approximately 10% in 2020, but for thyroid cancer the decrease was as large as 18% after adjusting for reporting delay. The 2020 SEER incidence data are available in all SEER released products, except for joinpoint estimates of trends and lifetime risk of developing cancer.

Keywords

PandemicIncidence (geometry)Thyroid cancerCancer incidenceMedicineCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)CancerEpidemiologyDemographyMathematicsInternal medicineDisease

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Publication Info

Year
2023
Type
article
Volume
115
Issue
9
Pages
1109-1111
Citations
55
Access
Closed

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Angela B. Mariotto, Eric J. Feuer, Nadia Howlader et al. (2023). Interpreting cancer incidence trends: challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic. JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute , 115 (9) , 1109-1111. https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djad086

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DOI
10.1093/jnci/djad086