Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions

Abstract

Our dynamic SEIR model was effective in predicting the COVID-19 epidemic peaks and sizes. The implementation of control measures on January 23 2020 was indispensable in reducing the eventual COVID-19 epidemic size.

Keywords

QuarantineCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)OutbreakChinaMainland ChinaMedicineDemographyPublic health interventionsEpidemic controlPandemicSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)EpidemiologyPsychological interventionEnvironmental healthPopulationPublic health2019-20 coronavirus outbreakGeographyInfectious disease (medical specialty)VirologyDisease

Affiliated Institutions

Related Publications

Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China

Zunyou Wu , Jennifer M. McGoogan

This Viewpoint summarizes key epidemiologic and clinical findings from all cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported through February 11, 2020, in mainland China, an...

2020 JAMA 17761 citations

The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

Matteo Chinazzi , Jessica T. Davis , Marco Ajelli +13 more

Outbreak to pandemic In response to global dispersion of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), quarantine measures have been implemented around the world...

2020 Science 3909 citations

An interim review of the epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus

Sukhyun Ryu , Byung Chul Chun

OBJECTIVES: The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, China is currently recognized as a public health emergency of global concern.METHODS: We reviewed the currently av...

2020 Epidemiology and Health 203 citations

Immediate Psychological Responses and Associated Factors during the Initial Stage of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Epidemic among the General Population in China

Cuiyan Wang , Riyu Pan , Xiaoyang Wan +4 more

Background: The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic is a public health emergency of international concern and poses a challenge to psychological resilience. Research da...

2020 International Journal of Environmenta... 10099 citations

World Health Organization declares global emergency: A review of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)

Catrin Sohrabi , Zaid Alsafi , Niamh O’Neill +5 more

An unprecedented outbreak of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan City, Hubei province in China emerged in December 2019. A novel coronavirus was identified as the causative ...

2020 International Journal of Surgery 6231 citations

Publication Info

Year: 2020
Type: article
Volume: 12
Issue: 3
Pages: 165-174
Citations: 1473
Access: Closed

External Links

View on DOI.org

Social Impact

Altmetric

Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions

PlumX Metrics

Social media, news, blog, policy document mentions

Citation Metrics

1473

OpenAlex

Cite This

APA Style

                            
                                
                                    Zifeng Yang, 
                                
                                    Zhiqi Zeng, 
                                
                                    Ke Wang
                                
                                et al.
                            
                            (2020). 
                            Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions. 
                            Journal of Thoracic Disease
                            , 12
                            (3)
                            , 165-174.
                            https://doi.org/10.21037/jtd.2020.02.64
                        

Identifiers

DOI: 10.21037/jtd.2020.02.64