Abstract
Abstract Most estimates of global mean sea-level rise this century fall below 2 m. This quantity is comparable to the positive vertical bias of the principle digital elevation model (DEM) used to assess global and national population exposures to extreme coastal water levels, NASA’s SRTM. CoastalDEM is a new DEM utilizing neural networks to reduce SRTM error. Here we show – employing CoastalDEM—that 190 M people (150–250 M, 90% CI) currently occupy global land below projected high tide lines for 2100 under low carbon emissions, up from 110 M today, for a median increase of 80 M. These figures triple SRTM-based values. Under high emissions, CoastalDEM indicates up to 630 M people live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100, and up to 340 M for mid-century, versus roughly 250 M at present. We estimate one billion people now occupy land less than 10 m above current high tide lines, including 230 M below 1 m.
Keywords
Shuttle Radar Topography MissionDigital elevation modelCoastal floodEnvironmental sciencePopulationFlood mythGlobal warmingSea levelElevation (ballistics)Flooding (psychology)Physical geographyClimate changeSea level riseGeographyClimatologyGeologyOceanographyRemote sensingDemography
Affiliated Institutions
Related Publications
Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change
This chapter assesses past and projected changes in the ocean, cryosphere and sea level using paleo reconstructions, instrumental observations and model simulations. In the foll...
Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories
Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided...
Publication Info
- Year
- 2019
- Type
- article
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 4844-4844
- Citations
- 1190
- Access
- Closed
External Links
Social Impact
Altmetric
PlumX Metrics
Social media, news, blog, policy document mentions
Citation Metrics
1190
OpenAlex
Cite This
Scott Kulp,
Benjamin Strauss
(2019).
New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding.
Nature Communications
, 10
(1)
, 4844-4844.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z
Identifiers
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z