Abstract

What happens next? Four months into the severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, we still do not know enough about postrecovery immune protection and environmental and seasonal influences on transmission to predict transmission dynamics accurately. However, we do know that humans are seasonally afflicted by other, less severe coronaviruses. Kissler et al. used existing data to build a deterministic model of multiyear interactions between existing coronaviruses, with a focus on the United States, and used this to project the potential epidemic dynamics and pressures on critical care capacity over the next 5 years. The long-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 strongly depends on immune responses and immune cross-reactions between the coronaviruses, as well as the timing of introduction of the new virus into a population. One scenario is that a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 could occur as far into the future as 2025. Science , this issue p. 860

Keywords

Herd immunityTransmission (telecommunications)Social distancePandemicImmunityOutbreakCoronavirusPsychological interventionSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)VirologyMedicineIntensive care medicineImmunologyVaccinationDiseaseImmune systemInternal medicineInfectious disease (medical specialty)Computer science

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Publication Info

Year
2020
Type
article
Volume
368
Issue
6493
Pages
860-868
Citations
2736
Access
Closed

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Stephen M. Kissler, Christine Tedijanto, Edward Goldstein et al. (2020). Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science , 368 (6493) , 860-868. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb5793

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DOI
10.1126/science.abb5793