Scenario-Based Framework for National Energy Storage Integration in Decarbonization Pathways

Abstract

The integration of large-scale energy storage is pivotal for enabling re-liable, affordable, and decarbonized national power systems. This studyintroduces a scenario-based strategic planning framework to guide the de-ployment of storage under varying policy and technological futures. Fournational-scale scenarios are examined to explore how different planningapproaches affect emissions, cost, and grid stability. The results showthat strategic early investment in storage—as modeled in Scenario A—canlead to a 50% storage penetration rate by 2050, avoid 220 million metrictons of carbon dioxide emissions, and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energyfrom 112 to 76 USD per megawatt-hour. Scenario A also demonstrates themost cost-effective reliability enhancement, achieving a cost per avoidedblackout hour of 105,263 USD. In contrast, Scenario D, which assumespolicy inaction, results in only 20 gigawatts of installed storage capacityby 2050, an 18% reduction in renewable energy curtailment, and a per-sistently high Levelized Cost of Energy of 118 USD per megawatt-hour.These findings underscore the critical role of storage in supporting na-tional decarbonization and highlight the need for coordinated planning.The proposed framework serves as a practical decision-support tool foraligning storage investments with long-term energy and climate goals.

Affiliated Institutions

• Institute for Future Engineering JP

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