The Impact of the Demographic Transition on Dengue in Thailand: Insights from a Statistical Analysis and Mathematical Modeling

Abstract

Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Keywords

Dengue feverDemographyTransmission (telecommunications)Incidence (geometry)PopulationEpidemiological transitionLife expectancyMedicineGeographyVirologyMathematics

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Publication Info

Year: 2009
Type: article
Volume: 6
Issue: 9
Pages: e1000139-e1000139
Citations: 232
Access: Closed

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APA Style

                            
                                
                                    Derek A. T. Cummings, 
                                
                                    Sopon Iamsirithaworn, 
                                
                                    Justin Lessler
                                
                                et al.
                            
                            (2009). 
                            The Impact of the Demographic Transition on Dengue in Thailand: Insights from a Statistical Analysis and Mathematical Modeling. 
                            PLoS Medicine
                            , 6
                            (9)
                            , e1000139-e1000139.
                            https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000139
                        

Identifiers

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000139