U–CARE–PM: A real-time gating framework for catastrophic risk in critical utility projects

Abstract

Critical utility projects cannot pause scheduled milestones without risking severe operational and regulatory disruptions. This study introduces U–CARE–PM, a six-component framework—Real-Time Continuity Gate (RTCG), Continuity–Compliance Gauge (CCG), Log-Scaled Catastrophic Risk (LSCR) index, Regulatory Feed Engine (RFE), Resource Allocation Matrix (RAM), and an optional Early Compliance Drift Indicator (ECDI)—designed to manage high-impact, low-probability (HILP) threats under continuous operations. A multi-case study was conducted across four anonymized organizations—engineering services, infrastructure construction, IoT water-tech, and a multinational energy–water operator—over a six- to twelve-month period. U–CARE–PM was integrated into existing ERP-BPMS or SCADA systems, with tiered implementations reflecting digital maturity. Data sources included operational logs, semi-structured interviews (8–15 participants per site), and Delphi panel validation thresholds (CCG = 0.85; LSCR = 10). Pilot deployments reduced downtime by 18–24%, lowered compliance breaches by 30–40%, and improved schedule adherence by eight points. One site prevented an estimated USD 1 million outage through near-real-time resource reallocation. While the ECDI occasionally generated false positives, it accelerated regulatory response and reduced overnight emergencies. Unlike static milestone-based controls, U–CARE–PM integrates real-time continuity metrics, log-based risk weighting, and continuous compliance updates. This framework offers a replicable, data-driven approach for nonstop infrastructure projects, enhancing resilience and agility in the face of catastrophic risks. Compared with existing literature on project resilience, it advances the field by shifting from retrospective control toward proactive, continuous risk-compliance management.

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