Ecological Risk Modelling of Hypothetical Alien Species Using the Climex Model

Abstract

Invasion of alien species poses an enormous threat to agriculture and biodiversity, and irreparably harms the existing balance of ecosystems. Predictive invasion modeling plays a crucial role in mitigating the impacts of such invasions. In this study, CLIMEX will be used in modeling the global distribution of species of concern based on climatic factors: temperature, moisture, and seasonal stress indices. The model classifies entire appropriate climatic zones into various categories based on the Dominant Climatic Index (EI) and estimates ecological balance levels. The models were tested across latitudes and environmental conditions, with assumed parameter values and limits set to biological boundaries. The findings indicate that the greatest vulnerability to the possibility of invasion is found in the temperate and subtropical regions, with the most impacted areas being in the mid-latitude regions, where an increment in the values of EI can be noticed. Results are delivered based on mathematical spatial suitability mapping and synthesized tables of ecological risk evaluation. Models of this kind can simplify the monitoring of invasive species using surveillance systems and help with early prevention, management, and tracking. This study can prove the relevance of CLIMEX in the ecological risk evaluation and management of invasive species in climate change conditions.

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