Abstract
Abstract The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is routinely made available by NOAA for operational use, and it has also been calculated across the United States on a historical basis back to 1895 (Karl et al., 1983). Traditionally, the coefficients used in the calculation of the PDSI have been based on an anomalously hot and dry period across much of the United States (1931–60). By changing the base period used to calibrate the coefficients, the magnitude and the sign of the PDSI change significantly in many areas of the United States. Often the changes are larger than those that occur when the potential evapotranspiration is forced to a constant equal to the long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration. This sensitivity to base period calibration has important implications in the interpretation of operational or hindcast values of the PDSI for forest fire danger and other applications. The less frequently used Palmer moisture anomaly index (Z-index) is much less sensitive to changes in the cali...
Keywords
Index (typography)EvapotranspirationCalibrationSensitivity (control systems)Environmental scienceMathematicsStatisticsEngineeringComputer science
Affiliated Institutions
Related Publications
Indices of Climate Change for the United States
A framework is presented to quantify observed changes in climate within the contiguous United States through the development and analysis of two indices of climate change, a Cli...
Public health impacts of the severe haze in Equatorial Asia in September–October 2015: demonstration of a new framework for informing fire management strategies to reduce downwind smoke exposure
In September–October 2015, El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions set the stage for massive fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo), leading to persiste...
Pooled Results From 5 Validation Studies of Dietary Self-Report Instruments Using Recovery Biomarkers for Energy and Protein Intake
We pooled data from 5 large validation studies of dietary self-report instruments that used recovery biomarkers as references to clarify the measurement properties of food frequ...
The Prevalence and Etiology of Elevated Aminotransferase Levels in The United States
Chronic liver disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Although often used to detect liver disease, the prevalence and etiology of elevated amin...
Modelling multiple sources of dissemination bias in meta‐analysis
Abstract Asymmetry in the funnel plot for a meta‐analysis suggests the presence of dissemination bias. This may be caused by publication bias through the decisions of journal ed...
Publication Info
- Year
- 1986
- Type
- article
- Volume
- 25
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 77-86
- Citations
- 399
- Access
- Closed
External Links
Social Impact
Altmetric
PlumX Metrics
Social media, news, blog, policy document mentions
Citation Metrics
399
OpenAlex
Cite This
Thomas R. Karl
(1986).
The Sensitivity of the Palmer Drought Severity Index and Palmer's Z-Index to their Calibration Coefficients Including Potential Evapotranspiration.
Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology
, 25
(1)
, 77-86.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1986)025<0077:tsotpd>2.0.co;2
Identifiers
- DOI
- 10.1175/1520-0450(1986)025<0077:tsotpd>2.0.co;2