Baruch Fischhoff

How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits

Rating the Risks

Defining risk

Assessing uncertainty in physical constants

Assessing the uncertainty due to possible systematic errors in a physical measurement unavoidably involves an element of subjective judgment. Examination of historical measureme...

Behavioral decision theory perspectives on risk and safety

Modeling the Societal Impact of Fatal Accidents

A number of proposals have been put forth regarding the proper way to model the societal impact of fatal accidents. Most of these proposals are based on some form of utility fun...

I knew it would happen

Reasons for confidence.

Perceived informativeness of facts.

There are many tasks in which people are called on to disregard information that they have already processed. Dealing with inadmissible evidence in a courtroom setting, second-g...