Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence.
Research on people's confidence in their general knowledge has to date produced two fairly stable effects, many inconsistent results, and no comprehensive theory. We propose suc...
Publications
2 shownHow to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”
Most so-called "errors" in probabilistic reasoning are in fact not violations of probability theory. Examples of such "errors" include overconfidence bias, conjunction fallacy, ...
Frequent Co-Authors
Researcher Info
- h-index
- 2
- Publications
- 2
- Citations
- 2,588
- Institution
- Institute for Advanced Study
External Links
Identifiers
- ORCID
- 0000-0002-6163-5419
Impact Metrics
h-index
2
h-index: Number of publications with at least h citations each.